人工智能对入门级工作的影响
Business
Bartleby
The diamond-shaped firm
菱形公司
How big a threat is AI to entry-level jobs?
人工智能对入门级岗位的威胁有多大?
If you are interested in organisations and geometry, these are heady times.
The classic shape of the company hierarchy is a pyramid: lots of people at the bottom, tapering to a single point at the top.
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如果你对组织和几何学感兴趣，那么现在正是令人振奋的时期。
公司层级的经典形状是金字塔形：底部人数众多，向上逐渐收窄，直至顶端聚于一点。
pyramid：n.金字塔，锥体；v.堆成尖塔；渐增，上涨
pyramid scheme：金字塔骗局
scheme：n.政府计划，方案；体系，布局；阴谋；v.密谋，筹划
taper to：逐渐朝一端变窄
同义替换：graduAIly narrow towards
But the possibility that firms will need many fewer people because of AI means that pyramids may become passé.
Some reckon the organisation of the future will look like an obelisk, with a vaguely similar shape but fewer people at each level.
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但是由于人工智能，企业所需人力可能大幅减少，这意味着金字塔结构或许会成为过去式。
有人认为未来的组织将类似方尖碑，形状与金字塔大致相仿，但每层人数更少。（注：方尖碑类似铅笔，顶端为三角形、下面是较长的长方形。）
vaguely similar：略微相似
If you believe that entrepreneurs will be able to create huge firms on their own, the shape of the future might end up being a dot.
But the one that captures the biggest near-term worry is the diamond.
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如果你认为企业家能够独自创建庞大的公司，那么未来的组织形态或许最终会成为一个点。
但是最能体现近期最大担忧的是菱形。
If entry-level and junior jobs are disproportionately affected by AI, white-collar organisations may end up narrower at the top and bottom and wider in the middle.
The data so far are inconclusive.
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如果入门级和初级职位受到AI的影响尤为严重，那么白领组织的结构可能会变得两头窄、中间宽。
目前的数据尚无定论。
disproportionately：adv.不成比例地
A paper published late last year by Erik Brynjolfsson of Stanford University and colleagues found evidence of big drops in employment in America for 22-to 25-year-olds in software engineering and customer service.
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斯坦福大学的埃里克·布林约尔松及其同事去年底发表的一篇论文发现，美国22至25岁年轻人在软件工程和客户服务领域的就业率大幅下降。
big drops in：...的大幅下降
Another recent study, by Bouke Klein Teeselink of King's College London, suggests that British firms which are more exposed to AI are more likely to reduce entry-level hiring.
But a new paper by Morgan Frank of the University of Pittsburgh and his co-authors cautions that graduate prospects in AI-exposed industries were worsening before the launch of ChatGPT in 2022.
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伦敦国王学院的鲍克·克莱因·蒂塞林克近期开展的另一项研究表明，受AI影响较大的英国企业更有可能减少入门级岗位的招聘。
但是匹兹堡大学的摩根·弗兰克及其合著者发表的新论文指出，早在2022年ChatGPT发布之前，受AI影响行业的毕业生就业前景就已恶化。
caution：n.小心；警告；v.告诫，提醒
worsening：n.恶化；adj.日益恶化的；v.恶化（worsen的现在进行时）
AI is not the only source of economic uncertainty; young workers always tend to get hit hard when older workers cling onto their current iobs.
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AI并非经济不确定性的唯一来源，当老员工紧握现有职位不放时，年轻劳动者往往首当其冲。
紧握_同义替换
cling onto
hold on
grip
There are, however, good first-principles reasons to be worried about AI's impact on entry-level jobs (a topic we explore in the latest season of Boss Class, our podcast on work and management).
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然而，有充分的基本原理让人担忧AI对入门级工作的影响（这个话题我们在最新一季的《老板课堂》中进行了探讨，这是本刊关于工作和管理学的播客)。
Lots of junior staff spend their first years in the office inexpertly doing document-heavy grunt work in return for experience.
Now there is a machine that can do document-heavy grunt work more efficiently and cheaply than humans - and that never asks awkward questions about your firm's progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals.
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许多初级员工在初入职场的几年都是在办公室不熟练地处理大量文书类乏味工作，以换取工作经验。
如今有机器能比人类更高效、更廉价地处理涉及大量文书的乏味工作，而且绝不会向你提出“公司在可持续发展目标上的进展如何”之类的尴尬问题。
in return for：作为某物的交换
If a junior employee is smart, they may well be using AI themselves to get the work done, so are they learning anything anyway?
And if the diamond is the shape of the future, why not let someone else train early-career employees and lure them to your organisation a bit later?
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如果初级员工足够聪明，他们很可能已经在用AI完成工作，这样的话他们还能学到什么吗?
且如果菱形是未来公司的形态，为何不让别人先培训职场新人，稍晚些再将他们吸引到你的组织呢?
In fact, managers have three very good reasons not to slash entry-level jobs.
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事实上，管理者有不削减初级岗位的三个充分理由。
slash：v.（用利器）砍，劈；大幅削减；抨击；n.砍，劈；（长而窄的）伤口；斜杠
slash prices：大幅降价
First, no one knows how AI is going to affect work over the longer term.
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第一，没有人知道AI将如何长期影响工作。
Second, firms always run the risk of expensively trained workers leaving, but not having a pipeline of future talent can be even riskier.
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第二，企业总是面临花费重金培养的员工最后离职的风险，但是没有未来人才储备的风险可能更大。
未来人才储备_同义替换
a pipeline of future talent
future talent reserve
Third, although attrition may seem like the least disruptive way to cut back on employees, it is not the best way to acquire an AI-literate workforce.
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第三，虽然自然减员似乎是削减员工数量的破坏性最小的方式，但是这并非培养具备AI素养人才的最佳途径。 （注：自然减员即员工退休或离职后不招人进行替补。)
attrition：n.摩损，削弱；自然减员，人员流失
破坏性的_同义替换
disruptive：引起混乱的
destructive：毁灭性的
Because entry-level employees have no experience of work, they lack ingrained habits.
And although lots of young people regard AI with the sort of deep antipathy they normally reserve for their parents, they tend to use it more than older workers.
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因为入门级员工没有工作经验，所以他们缺乏根深蒂固的习惯。
而且虽然许多年轻人对AI怀有那种只对父母有的强烈反感情绪，但是他们使用AI的频率往往高于年长员工。
reserve for：为...保留
According to OpenAI, 18-to 29-year-olds are more than twice as likely to use ChatGPT at work as those over 50.
"We think of our entry-level talent as a very interesting change lever," says Hannah Calhoon, the head of AI at Indeed, a jobs' marketplace.
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“我们将入门级人才视为非常有趣的变革杠杆。”求职平台Indeed的人工智能主管汉娜·卡尔霍恩表示。
She encourages colleagues not to unthinkingly replace experienced leavers with equally seasoned candidates, but to at least consider the benefits of bringing in junior people with fresh perspectives.
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她鼓励同事们不要不假思索地用同样经验丰富的人选来替代离职的老员工，而至少要考虑一下引入有新视角的初级员工所带来的好处。
seasoned candidates：经验丰富的候选人
seasoned：adj.富有经验的；调好味的；风干的；v.给...调味；使风干（season的过去式和过去分词）
In the optimistic case, entry-level jobs will actually get better.
Trainee solicitors in Britain have traditionally spent a lot of time doing research, taking notes and drafting contracts, observes Samantha Hope of Shoosmiths, a law firm.
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舒斯密斯律师事务所的萨曼莎·霍普指出，英国实习律师过去常常花大量时间进行调研、记录、起草合同。
But when AI starts doing much of the grunt work, trainees ought to be able to spend more time on higher-order things like talking to clients or negotiating.
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但是当AI开始承担大量乏味工作后，实习生就能将更多时间投入更高层级的事务，例如与客户沟通或参与谈判。
Shoosmiths is considering expanding the rotations that trainees undertake; a few months in its innovation or legal-technology teams might well be good preparation for bigger changes ahead.
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舒斯密斯律师事务所正考虑扩大实习生轮岗的工作范围，在创新或法律科技团队待几个月或许能为未来的更大变化做好充分准备。
expand the rotations that trainees undertake：扩大实习生轮岗的工作范围
rotation：n.旋转；循环；轮岗
undertake：v.承担；从事
Bosses are under pressure to turn AI adoption into profits.
Many will be tempted to chop entry-level jobs in response.
The better option would be to rethink what junior workers do.
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老板们正面临将AI应用转化为利润的压力。
许多人倾向于将削减入门级职位作为应对之策。
更好的选择是重新思考初级员工的工作内容。
chop：v.剁，劈砍；大幅削减；强行废止；n.（羊或猪）排；剁，劈砍；（人或动物）嘴周围的地方；动物饲料
pork chop：猪排
pork chop bun：猪扒包
lamb chop：羊排
📌 关于趋势变化的表达
found evidence of big drops in employment
大幅削减：slash、chop
削减：cut back、reduce
📌 关于数据比较的表达
According to OpenAI, 18-to 29-year-olds are more than twice as likely to use ChatGPT at work as those over 50.