租房还是买房

Finance & Economics | Buttonwood

Is it better to rent or buy?

Much depends on long-term interest rates.

“That our people should live in their own homes is a sentiment deep in the heart of our race and of American life,” said President Herbert Hoover, perhaps the most important advocate of mass homeownership in the country's history, in 1931. “They never sing songs about a pile of rent receipts.”

翻译&笔记

“民众拥有自住房，是深植于美利坚民族与生活方式之中的情感，”1931年，时任总统赫伯特·胡佛（Herbert Hoover）如此感慨。作为美国历史上推动大众置业最力的倡导者之一，他直言不讳地说道：“没人会为那一叠叠租金收据谱写赞歌。”

sentiment, n.情感；看法
a pile of receipts, 一堆收据

But a ballad about the rental market is overdue. When rich-world interest rates began to surge in 2022, renting became a better deal than buying. House prices have since stagnated or slumped in many places, and rates are falling. Even so, there is reason to think that the winning streak for renters will continue.

翻译&笔记

然而，一首献给租房市场的“民谣”早已姗姗来迟。自2022年发达国家利率开始飙升以来，租房便显现出比买房更高的性价比。此后，全球多地房价陷入停滞甚至下挫，尽管如此，扔有理由相信，租房者的“连胜势头”仍将延续。

ballad, n.歌谣
rich-world, 发达国家
surge, n.激增；（风、水等的）汹涌；增援；v.激增；（绳子，缆索，绞盘）突然松开
stagnate, v.停滞；使淤塞
slump, v.骤降，猛跌；n.萧条，低迷期
winning streak, 连胜

According to Zillow, an American property website, the monthly cost of buying and keeping a home — including taxes, insurance, modest maintenance and a 20% down payment — was lower than renting from 2015 to 2021, an era of ultra-low interest rates. Since then, however, the picture has flipped. Today a new buyer pays about $400 more per month. In several of America's largest cities, the gap runs into thousands of dollars a month.

翻译&笔记

据美国房产门户网站Zillow的数据，在2015至2021年的超低利率时代，购房并持有房屋的月均成本（含税费、保险、常规维护及20%首付的资金成本）曾低于租房。但此后，攻守之势逆转：如今新置业者每月的平均支出比租房高出约400美元；在部分美国一线城市，这一缺口更是高达数千美元。

modest maintenance, 常规维护，适度维护
a 20% down payment, 20%的首付款
Since then, however, the picture has flipped. 但此后，情况发生了逆转。
per, 每个
the gap runs into thousands of dollars a month, 这一缺口更是高达每月数千美元

This is not just an American phenomenon. According to CBRE, a global real-estate firm, there is no precinct in Australia where buying an apartment is cheaper than renting one. Rathbones, a British wealth-management firm, estimates that rental yields — the income landlords earn relative to a property's price — are around 5%, only slightly above the 4.4% rate on five-year fixed mortgages. Given that landlords also face steep maintenance and tax bills, this suggests tenants are getting a good deal.

翻译&笔记

这并非美国独有的现象。全球地产服务商世邦魏理仕（CBRE）指出，在澳大利亚任何区域，购买公寓的持有成本都超过了租金。英国财富管理公司Rathbones估算，目前的租金收益率（即年租金相对于房价的比例）约为5%，仅略高于4.4%的五年期固定房贷利率。考虑到房东还需支付不菲的维护和税务账单，这意味着租户实际上占了便宜。

precinct, 选区，区域
landlords, 房东，地主
relative to, 与...相关
mortgage, n.按揭抵押，房屋贷款；v.抵押
steep, adj.（路、山等）陡峭的；（价格，需求）难以接受的，过高的；（增加或减少）急剧的，大幅度的；v. 浸泡（食物）；使沉湎；n. 悬崖，陡坡；用于浸泡的溶液
steep rise, 急剧上升

Renters often fear they are throwing money away by paying landlords, while buyers build equity. But property is not the only investment available. Arthur Cox of the University of Northern Iowa finds that, even from 1984 to 2013, a period in which house prices rose overall and mortgage rates fell sharply, people were sometimes better off if they avoided homeownership. In three of the six U.S. metropolitan areas he studied, renting and investing the would-be mortgage payments in stocks and corporate bonds yielded higher returns over time.

翻译&笔记

租房者常担心付给房东的钱是“打水漂”，而购房则是在积累资产净值。然而，房产并非唯一的投资篮子。北爱荷华大学的亚瑟·考克斯（Arthur Cox）研究发现，即便在1984至2013年这段房价整体上涨且抵押贷款利率大幅下降的时期，不买房有时反而能让人们的经济状况更富裕。在他研究的六个美国大都会区中，有三个地区的数据显示：若选择租房，并将原本计划用于还贷的差额资金投入股市或公司债，长期的复利回报反而更胜一筹。

build equity, 增加资产净值
prices rose overall, 价格整体上涨
better off, 经济状况更富裕
metropolitan areas, 大都市区；metropolitan, adj.大都市的；宗主国（有关）的；n.大主教；都会居民
metropolis, n.大城市
the would-be mortgage payments, 即将支付的抵押贷款
corporate bonds, 公司债券；corporate, adj.公司的；共同的；n.公司
cooperate, v.合作

True, renters have lost ground in some markets. In Hong Kong, rental yields have risen from below 2.5% four years ago to 3.5% today. This shift stems from a sharp fall in house prices, which have dropped by a third in real terms since 2021.

翻译&笔记

诚然，在某些市场，租房的性价比优势正在被蚕食。以香港为例，租金收益率已从四年前的不足2.5%攀升至如今的3.5%。这一变化的主因是房价的剧烈缩水——自2021年以来，香港的实际房价已累计下挫了三分之一。

lost ground, 失去优势/地位
stem from, 源于
drop by a third, 下降了1/3；drop by, 顺路拜访
in real terms, 实际上

But Hong Kong's mortgages differ from those elsewhere in the rich world. Most borrowers there hold floating-rate loans tied to the Federal Reserve's short-term policy rates. In contrast, mortgages in most advanced economies are linked to longer-term rates — which have barely budged. Despite recent rate cuts, five- and ten-year government bond yields remain near levels seen three years ago.

翻译&笔记

但香港的房贷逻辑与世界其他发达经济体大相径庭：当地多数贷款为浮动利率，直接挂钩美联储的短期政策利率。相比之下，多数发达国家的房贷利率锚定的是长期利率——而后者近期几乎纹丝不动。尽管多国央行近期启动降息，但五年期和十年期国债收益率仍维持在三年前的高位。

those elsewhere, 其他地方
loan, n.贷款；v.借给
Federal Reserve, 美联储
barely budge, 几乎不动
bond yields, 债券收益

In America, 30-year mortgage rates remain above 6%, more than twice the rock-bottom levels reached in the covid-19 pandemic. Although buyers can find shorter-term mortgages, they take on the risk of a rebound in inflation and thus rates.

翻译&笔记

在美国，30年期抵押贷款利率仍高于6%，是新冠疫情期间最低水平的两倍多。虽然购房者可以选择短期贷款，但他们需承担通胀反弹及利率随之上升的风险。

more than twice the rock-bottom levels reached in 20th century
more than twice the lows reached in 20th century
the covid-19 pandemic, 新冠疫情期间
take on the risk of, 承担..的风险
rebound, v.反弹；适得其反；重新装订（rebind的过去式和过去分词）n.反弹；复发；

bound
adj.必然的；受约束的；关系密切的；
v.蹦跳着走；形成...的边界；限制，约束；急剧上升；（尤指圆形的物体）弹回，弹开；捆绑，凝结（bind的过去式和过去分词形式）；
n.限制；蹦跳

Picking a likely victor in the ongoing battle between tenancy and ownership therefore means taking a view on the future of long-term interest rates.

翻译&笔记

因此，在这场持续存在的“租买博弈”中谁能胜出，意味着要对长期利率走势的研判。

pick a victor, 挑选一个获胜者
ongoing, 持续存在的
take a view on, 对...持有看法

Your columnist would suggest that they look worryingly sticky.

翻译&笔记

笔者认为长期利率看起来恐怕不会有太大变化。

Concerns about government debt and long-term inflationary pressures are not going anywhere.

翻译&笔记

对政府债务和长期通胀压力的担忧不会消失。

Concerns about ... are not going anywhere. 对...的担忧不会消失

Moreover, in recent years renter-friendly regulation has swept the West.

翻译&笔记

此外，近年来对租客友好的法规在西方迅速普及。

sweep, v.n.打扫，清除；席卷，迅速蔓延
sweep the west, 迅速蔓延西方

Britain's Renters' Rights Act makes it more difficult for landlords to evict residents, and enables tenants to challenge rent increases via tribunals.

翻译&笔记

英国的《租户权利法》使房东更难驱逐租户，并允许租户通过裁决法庭对租金上涨提出异议。

evict, 驱逐
challenge, 挑战，质疑

Many American cities have frozen regulated rents, as Zohran Mamdani, New York's new mayor, intends to do in his city.

翻译&笔记

许多美国城市已经冻结了管制租金，纽约新市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼也打算在纽约采取同样的做法。（注：即规定房租的最高值。）

regulate, v.（用规则条例）控制，管理；调节；监管

Such rules are terrible news for anyone considering making an investment in housing, and they tip the calculation further in favour of tenants.

翻译&笔记

这些规定对任何考虑投资房产的人来说都是坏消息，而且进一步将天平倾向了租客一方。

make an investment in housing, 投资房地产
in favour of someone, 有利于某人
tip（倾斜） the balance further in favour of the former / the latter, 使天平进一步偏向前者/后者

Buyers have reasons to own a home that surmount cold financial logic.

翻译&笔记

买房者们有超越冰冷财务逻辑的购房理由。

surmount oneself, 超越自我

Many feel the same emotional pull that animated Hoover almost a century ago. Others want a secure and long tenure.

翻译&笔记

许多人也能感受到近一百年前让胡佛情绪激昂的那种情感。其他人则希望获得稳定且长期的住房保有权。

animate, adj.活力的；v.使生动；使...制成动画
anime, 动漫
enemy, 敌人
tenure, n.（土地的）居住权；（尤指大学教师的）终身职位；（尤指重要政治职务的）任期，任职；v.授予...终身职位（尤指教师、讲师职位）

And in some markets, it is just a question of practicality: finding a large, single-family home to rent can be difficult.

翻译&笔记

而在某些市场，这纯粹是实用性的问题：要租到一栋独户大房子并不容易。

practicality, n.实用性，可行性
practical, adj.实际的，实用的
practice, 练习

But for the cool, unemotional resident weighing up the pros and cons of buying, there is a clear winner.

翻译&笔记

但是对于冷静、不动感情、权衡利弊的住户来说，更优选项显而易见。

weigh up, 审视，权衡
pros and cons, 利弊，优点和缺点

Without a much steeper fall in house prices, a sudden decline in long-term interest rates or a protracted surge in rents, renting will remain the better option.

翻译&笔记

除非房价更大幅下跌、长期利率骤降，或租金长期飙升，否则租房仍将是更好的选择。

a much steeper fall in, ...的更大幅下跌
a sudden decline in, ...的突然下降
a protracted surge in, ...的长期飙升
protracted, adj.拖延的；长期的；v.拖延；延展；绘制
Renting will still be the better option. still be, 强调尽管有各种因素，但结论不变

原文链接（有音频），但部分句式和音频对不上

📌 关于趋势变化的表达

When rich-world interest rates began to surge in 2022, renting became a better deal than buying.

House prices have since stagnated or slumped in many places, and rates are falling.

Since then, however, the picture has flipped.

In several of America's largest cities, the gap runs into thousands of dollars a month.

Rental yields are around 5%, only slightly above the 4.4% rate on five-year fixed mortgages.

In Hong Kong, rental yields have risen from below 2.5% (four years ago) to 3.5% today.

steep rise, 急剧上升
sharply fall, 急剧下降
prices rose overall, 价格整体上涨
drop by a third, 下降了1/3
barely budge, 几乎不动
more than twice the rock-bottom levels reached in 20th century
more than twice the lows reached in 20th century
tip（倾斜） the balance further in favour of the former / the latter, 使天平进一步偏向前者/后者
a much steeper fall in, ...的更大幅下跌
a sudden decline in, ...的突然下降
a protracted surge in, ...的长期飙升